United Kingdom: Public Accounts Committee report on the MoD Equipment Plan 2023-2033 (2024)
- Parliament
- House of Commons, United Kingdom 1
- Committee
- Committee of Public Accounts 1
- Report
- MoD Equipment Plan 2023-2033, Nineteenth Report of Session 2023-24, HC 451 1
- Published
- 8 March 2024 1
- Audit relied on
- National Audit Office, The Equipment Plan 2023-2033, HC 315, published 4 December 2023 1,2
- Government response
- Treasury Minutes, CP 1085, dated May 2024 on the cover 1
- Position
- Agreed with recommendations 2, 4, 5 and 6. Disagreed with recommendations 1 and 3 1
- Outcome status
- Pending for the agreed recommendations. Report listed under updates on reports with outstanding recommendations 3
Background and the audit
The National Audit Office report The Equipment Plan 2023-2033 (HC 315) was published on 4 December 2023 2. It said forecast total costs at 31 March 2023 were £305.5 billion against a 10-year budget of £288.6 billion 2.
The NAO said the Plan "is unaffordable, with the MoD estimating that forecast costs exceed the available budget by £16.9 billion (6%)" 2. It said the MoD estimated the gap could range between £7.6 billion and £29.8 billion 2. The committee's report draws on this audit, according to the Treasury Minute, which cites both the PAC report (HC 451) and the NAO report (HC 315) 1.
The committee's conclusions
The Treasury Minute reproduces six conclusions 1. The wording below is the committee's, as quoted in the Minute 1.
- Conclusion 1: the MoD's approach to the deficit relies on "an optimistic assumption that government will fulfil its ambition to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence each year." 1
- Conclusion 2: the Plan is inconsistent across the Armed Forces in how capability costs are included 1.
- Conclusion 3: prioritising the Defence Nuclear Enterprise "carries a risk that this will further squeeze budgets for conventional capabilities." 1
- Conclusion 4: "Uncertainty about the MoD's future demand for equipment hinders its work with industry." 1
- Conclusion 5: the strategy for replacing ageing capabilities is "undermined by the slow delivery of new systems." 1
- Conclusion 6: the MoD is "becoming increasingly reliant on the UK's allies to protect the UK's national interests." 1
The recommendations and the government's position
The table gives each recommendation as numbered in the Treasury Minute, in shortened form, with the government's position and target date 1.
| No. | Recommendation (shortened) | Government position | Target date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Show a disciplined approach to budgeting that keeps costs in line with funding, prioritise capabilities and set out what would be cut if funding falls short of 2.5% of GDP 1 | Disagreed. The department "does not intend to set out a list of capabilities that would be cut" 1 | None given 1 |
| 2 | All budget holders to take the same approach to including forecast costs 1 | Agreed. The Minute says all Top-Level Budget Holders already use the same standardised financial planning processes 1 | Spring 2025 1 |
| 3 | Build on the transparency on nuclear costs by reporting funding trends and their effect on conventional budgets 1 | Disagreed. The Minute says this "would be wholly speculative and would not be a useful basis for planning" 1 | None given 1 |
| 4 | "develop and communicate clear and funded schedules of work" for procurement and support of equipment 1 | Agreed 1 | Spring 2025 1 |
| 5 | "include in next year's Plan an assessment of what impact its new procurement strategy has had" 1 | Agreed. The Minute says the Integrated Procurement Model was announced to Parliament on 28 February 2024 1 | December 2024 1 |
| 6 | Assess how far capability requirements rely on support from allies and develop mitigations 1 | Agreed 1 | Spring 2025 1 |
Follow-up through Treasury Minutes progress reports
HM Treasury publishes progress reports on recommendations the government accepted. Since the May 2024 Minute it has published progress reports on 29 May 2024, 28 March 2025, 4 December 2025 and 4 June 2026 4.
The June 2026 report says it is "a record of the Government's progress towards implementing outstanding recommendations from the Committee of Public Accounts" 3. Its Session 2023-24 index lists "19 MOD Equipment plan 2023-33" under "Updates on reports with outstanding recommendations", with the entry on page 76 3.
The page 76 entry could not be read for this record. The status of each of the four agreed recommendations in June 2026 is not confirmed here 3. Recommendation 5 asked for an assessment in "next year's Plan" 1. No published Equipment Plan for a later year was found in the sources checked for this page.
Outcome status
| No. | Status as of 22 October 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not implemented. The government disagreed 1 | Treasury Minute CP 1085 1 |
| 2 | Pending. Report listed as having outstanding recommendations in June 2026 3. Per-recommendation status not confirmed 3 | Progress report June 2026 3 |
| 3 | Not implemented. The government disagreed 1 | Treasury Minute CP 1085 1 |
| 4 | Pending. Per-recommendation status not confirmed 3 | Progress report June 2026 3 |
| 5 | Pending. Per-recommendation status not confirmed 3 | Progress report June 2026 3 |
| 6 | Pending. Per-recommendation status not confirmed 3 | Progress report June 2026 3 |
Common questions
Did the PAC find wrongdoing in the Equipment Plan?
No. The committee made conclusions and recommendations on affordability and planning 1. A recommendation is not a finding of wrongdoing.
How large was the forecast gap in the Equipment Plan?
The NAO reported that the MoD estimated forecast costs exceeded the budget by £16.9 billion (6%), with a range of £7.6 billion to £29.8 billion 2.
Which recommendations did the government reject?
Recommendation 1 on setting out what would be cut and recommendation 3 on reporting nuclear funding trends 1.
Where is the latest update published?
In the Treasury Minutes Progress Report of June 2026, which lists the report among those with outstanding recommendations 3,4.
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Sources
- HM Treasury: Treasury Minutes, Government response to the Committee of Public Accounts, CP 1085 (May 2024)
- National Audit Office: The Equipment Plan 2023-2033, HC 315 (4 December 2023)
- HM Treasury: Treasury Minutes Progress Report, CP 1593 (June 2026)
- GOV.UK, HM Treasury: Treasury minutes progress reports collection (page checked 22 October 2026)
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